Category: Football
Series: Breaking
Competition: UEFA Nations League / Euro 2028
Italy have secured a seeded position in the Euro 2028 qualifying draw after guaranteeing a top-three finish in their UEFA Nations League group.
The Azzurri’s 3–1 victory over Türkiye on October 5 moved Roberto Mancini’s side to seven points in League A Group A1 and ensured they cannot finish fourth. With the top three teams from each Nations League group guaranteed seeded status for the Euro 2028 qualifying draw, Italy have already achieved the minimum position required to avoid the unseeded pots.
That means the pressure surrounding Italy’s Nations League campaign has changed.
The question is no longer whether the Azzurri will be seeded in Belfast.
Now, they have a bigger opportunity: can Italy finish first and become a Nations League group winner?
Italy Have Already Done Enough for Seeding
The importance of Italy’s Nations League campaign was clear from the beginning.
Under the Euro 2028 qualifying regulations, the qualifying draw will use the interim overall rankings from the 2026–27 Nations League to determine the seeding. The competition’s League A groups therefore carry significant importance for teams such as Italy.
Italy were placed in Group A1 alongside France, Belgium and Türkiye.
Their campaign began badly when Belgium defeated them 2–0 at the Stadio Olimpico, immediately putting the Azzurri under pressure.
But Italy responded.
They defeated Türkiye 4–1 away from home, drew 1–1 with France in Paris and then beat Türkiye 3–1 in Bologna. Those results lifted Italy to seven points after four matches and secured their place among the top three.
The result against Türkiye was particularly important because it removed the possibility of Italy slipping into fourth place.
With only two group matches remaining, Italy are therefore guaranteed a seeded position when UEFA conducts the Euro 2028 qualifying draw in Belfast on December 6.
For Italy, that is one piece of the Euro 2028 puzzle already solved.
What Does Being Seeded Actually Mean?
Being seeded does not mean Italy have qualified for Euro 2028.
It also does not guarantee an easy qualifying group.
What it does is place Italy among the 12 seeded nations for the qualifying draw.
The 54 participating teams will be divided into 12 qualifying groups, with groups containing either four or five teams. The group winners will qualify directly for the European Championship, while eight of the best-ranked runners-up will also qualify automatically. The remaining four runners-up will enter the play-offs.
The seeding system makes Italy’s Nations League campaign especially important because finishing in the top three of their League A group protects them from dropping into the lower pots.
In simple terms, Italy have made sure they will enter the draw with a stronger starting position.
That matters because the Azzurri will avoid the other seeded teams in their qualifying group.
But First Place Would Be Even Better
Italy’s work is not finished.
Although third place is enough to secure seeding, winning Group A1 would bring another advantage.
The four winners of the Nations League League A quarter-finals will be placed into qualifying groups containing four teams rather than five. UEFA’s qualifying regulations state that each of the four Nations League quarter-final winners will be drawn into a different four-team qualifying group.
That makes the final two Nations League matches particularly significant.
Italy currently sit second in Group A1 behind France.
France have 10 points, while Italy have seven. Belgium are third on six, with Türkiye still without a point.
Italy therefore still have a realistic mathematical route to the top of the group.
Their remaining fixtures are significant.
The Azzurri host France on November 12 before travelling to face Belgium on November 15.
Those two matches will determine whether Italy finish second or can climb above France.
The France Match Could Decide Everything
Italy’s next Nations League fixture against France could become the defining match of Group A1.
The teams drew 1–1 in Paris in October, with Alessandro Bastoni cancelling out Michael Olise’s opener.
France currently hold the advantage at the top of the group, meaning Italy must find a way to close the three-point gap.
A victory in the return fixture would dramatically change the picture.
It would not automatically settle the group because Italy would still have to face Belgium, but it would give Mancini’s team a significant opportunity to take control heading into the final match.
The Belgium fixture could then become another high-pressure encounter.
Italy already know how dangerous Belgium can be after suffering a 2–0 defeat in Rome in September.
The Azzurri therefore have unfinished business against both of the teams currently above them in the group.
Why The Nations League Matters So Much for Italy
The importance of this competition goes beyond the Nations League trophy.
For Italy, it is also about positioning themselves for the road to Euro 2028.
The qualifying draw will take place in Belfast on December 6, with qualifying matches scheduled to begin in March 2027.
Italy now know they will be among the seeded nations.
That removes one major concern.
But the higher Italy finish in the Nations League, the more advantageous their position could become.
Winning Group A1 would send them into the Nations League quarter-finals as group winners and put them in contention for the four-team qualifying group reserved for the quarter-final winners.
That would mean fewer qualifying matches and, potentially, a less congested route towards Euro 2028.
It is therefore no longer simply about avoiding fourth place.
Italy have already achieved that.
The objective has moved upwards.
Italy’s Euro 2028 Route Is Taking Shape
The Azzurri entered the Nations League knowing that their results could influence their European Championship campaign months before the actual qualifying matches began.
Four games later, the immediate danger has disappeared.
The 2–0 defeat to Belgium could have created a difficult campaign, but Italy recovered with three unbeaten results — including victories over Türkiye and a valuable draw in France.
The 3–1 win over Türkiye ultimately sealed the crucial top-three position.
Italy are seeded.
Now comes the more ambitious target.
France remain at the top of Group A1, but Italy are within touching distance with two matches left.
A strong November could therefore turn a successful Nations League campaign into an even more valuable one.
For the Azzurri, the equation has changed from “Can we avoid the unseeded pots?” to “Can we win the group?”
Italy have already secured their place among the seeds.
Now they have two more matches to improve their position before the Euro 2028 qualifying draw.
And those two matches could determine just how favourable the road to the European Championship becomes.
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